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The Unders in Games 7 opportunity I mentioned on Monday has given us two winners this week. On Tuesday night, we had a very comfortable winner with the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz combining for a total of 158 points, the lowest total in a Game 7 since 2012, and 60 points under the 218 Total line. This win extended the sequence for Unders to six but not for long as t he sequence was extended to seven last night. The Game 7 between the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder, a series which had seen the previous two games both go Under, was another winner and no doubt many of you had your houses on this one. Maybe not, but hopefully some of you made a little money. Overtime was a slight concern, but the Rockets won in regulation by two.  The US Next President market appears to be somewhat inefficient right now with the two candidates tied on Betfair for a while yesterday. Since then Biden shortened, presumably in response to a number of key state polls which were all favourable to...

The always excellent The Economist has an article on the US Presidential Election and their model for the Electoral College which: ...works by simulating 20,000 paths for the election, each time varying candidates� vote shares to account for polling error, changes in turnout or the political environment and the effects of campaigning. The bars below represent the predicted likelihood of every plausible electoral-vote outcome. Less than three weeks ago , I wrote that: ...the five states to keep a close eye on, and in order of importance, are Florida (29 votes), Pennsylvania (20), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11) and Wisconsin (10). The Economist has only three states as "toss-ups", namely Ohio, Georgia and Iowa (two of those states having a good number of votes at stake). Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are moved to the "Likely Democrat" column, and North Carolina, Arizona and Florida move to the "Leans Democrat" category although with a win probability for th...