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After the two NBA Game 7s this week, here are some more details about how the Totals in a long series tend to play out. First of all, some history. Since 2014, NBA play-off series are all Best-of-Seven, played in a 2-2-1-1-1 format, with the highest seed (better team based on regular season) having Home advantage in Games 1, 2, 5 and 7, although sometimes Game 5 and often Game 7 are not required, Prior to 2014, the series were played in a 2-3-2 format, and the format has been tinkered with on several occasions, which means we have to be careful when comparing data across seasons, especially in Games 5 and 6. The format was changed in 2003, when the First Round became a Best-of Seven series, reducing the chances of a higher seed being eliminated, (i n 2007, the Golden State Warriors became the first team to defeat a number one seen in a best-of-7 First Round series),  but also increasing the probability of a team sitting around for a few days waiting for their opponent who may be pl...

Slow starts are somewhat magnified this season with just 60 games in total, but finally some signs of life for MLB's Hot Favourites and the systems in total are actually in profit for the season! In the NHL, the trend I mentioned for Unders in empty stadiums has continued with a 40-26-4 record. The books are adjusting the total as might be expected, but for now Unders is the play. With no Home advantage, these playoffs are unique, but I've been looking at the records of Favourites and Underdogs since the league re-structured while ignoring the venue. Historically, backing the Favourite in an NHL play-off game is not a great idea, and actually one that is getting worse by the season. This season appears to be following the same pattern, with 'Dogs currently showing a 15.1%  ROI. I think I've mentioned before that accounting for time zones in this sport can be helpful, with the Eastern Conference often quite different to the Western Conference (teams are geographically c...

Brentford's 73 years of hurt will, unfortunately, be extended by another year at least after losing out yet again (no promotions in nine attempts) in promotion Play-Offs.  For the matches I have betting data, backing Brentford over the years would have been costly: One win in twelve matches, and that in the one match they were odds-on (versus Swansea City this season.) Of course, as soon as I mention that the Draw isn't generally a good bet in Play-Off Finals, along comes a perfect one.  Here are the updated numbers for Play-Off Finals on neutral grounds: In Baseball, MLB continues to have issues with COVID-19, with one team (St Louis Cardinals) having played as few as 5 games, while others have played the scheduled 16 matches. If you follow big favourites, a strategy that has been profitable in 17 of the last 18 "months" (I combine the few games at the start and end of the season with the appropriate full month adjoining it, i.e. March with April and October with Sep...

The NHL continues to move towards a resumption of play with the two cities chosen almost certain to be Toronto (Eastern Conferences) and Edmonton (Western Conference). Training camps originally scheduled for this Friday (July 10th) have been delayed to next week and will be held in the home city of each of the 24 participating teams. From ESPN : Teams are then expected to travel to the two hub cities on July 25 or July 26. Games are expected to begin Aug. 1, and if the tournament goes as planned, we should be awarding the Stanley Cup in early October. This is all still fluid, but we're getting to the point where the NHL needs to put firm dates on the calendar. Interesting, but perhaps not surprising given the COVID-19 situation in the US, that the two cities likely selected are both in Canada, with Las Vegas dropped as the hub city for the Western Conference. The ESPN article has an amusing exchange between the writer (Emily Kaplan) and "a prominent Western Conference player...

Still no definitive date on schedules or when MLB might be back, but pre-season training camps have begun and confirmation today that the annual mid-season All-Star game will not be played but the Los Angeles Dodgers will host instead in 2022. No fewer than 31 players have tested positive for COVID-19 in Major League Baseball's first round of testing. Two players were named, one from the San Diego Padres, and another from the Cleveland Indians who may well have a new name if and when the season re-starts. The Washington Redskins NFL team also look almost certain to change their name. Such changes have long been discussed, but have never come to anything, but as the New York Times put it: But in the last month, the ground underneath their feet has shifted. American society is undergoing a wide uprising over police brutality and systemic racism that flared after the killing of George Floyd in police custody, a widespread movement that has led to a reconsideration of statues, flags, s...