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Yet another Game 7 in the NBA Play-offs this week, after the Denver Nuggets overcame a 19 point deficit to beat the Los Angeles Clippers by 13 points on Sunday.  Teams arriving at a Game 7 after losing a 3-1 series lead have a losing record and in this series, four games have been Under so far with two Pushes.  The NFL is back, and the Small Road Dogs System had three selections in Week One, namely the Chicago Bears, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Green Bay Packers and I'll take the 2-1 outcome any day of the week.  Although none of the opening eight matches ended as a Draw, with the 2020-21 EPL season underway, a timely reminder that backing the Draw in close matches is generally profitable in this league. As  David Sumpter wrote back in 2016  or so: It turns out that when two well-matched teams meet (i.e. the probability of a home win is only slightly bigger than the probability of away win) then draws are under-priced. When matches are skewed so there is a stro...

We have another Game 7 in the NBA  tonight, in the Boston Celtics v Toronto Raptors series, where five of the six games so far have gone Under, with the exception being the double-overtime Game 6 where the 51 extra-time points took the total comfortably over. With the Toronto Raptors getting 2.5 points, this is only the third time in database history (since 2002) that the Home team has not been favourites, although this season all games are being played on a neutral court so it's not a huge surprise. Both of those previous games went Under. Baseball continues to be an outlier of a season, with hot favourites unprofitable for the first time since 2014: With some perspective, the results this season don't look so terrible with some nice profits in the bank from previous seasons, but it's tough to keep backing during a downturn, especially when the schedules and rules have been changed so dramatically. Backing weaker favourites this season would have been profitable, but typic...

After the two NBA Game 7s this week, here are some more details about how the Totals in a long series tend to play out. First of all, some history. Since 2014, NBA play-off series are all Best-of-Seven, played in a 2-2-1-1-1 format, with the highest seed (better team based on regular season) having Home advantage in Games 1, 2, 5 and 7, although sometimes Game 5 and often Game 7 are not required, Prior to 2014, the series were played in a 2-3-2 format, and the format has been tinkered with on several occasions, which means we have to be careful when comparing data across seasons, especially in Games 5 and 6. The format was changed in 2003, when the First Round became a Best-of Seven series, reducing the chances of a higher seed being eliminated, (i n 2007, the Golden State Warriors became the first team to defeat a number one seen in a best-of-7 First Round series),  but also increasing the probability of a team sitting around for a few days waiting for their opponent who may be pl...

Brentford's 73 years of hurt will, unfortunately, be extended by another year at least after losing out yet again (no promotions in nine attempts) in promotion Play-Offs.  For the matches I have betting data, backing Brentford over the years would have been costly: One win in twelve matches, and that in the one match they were odds-on (versus Swansea City this season.) Of course, as soon as I mention that the Draw isn't generally a good bet in Play-Off Finals, along comes a perfect one.  Here are the updated numbers for Play-Off Finals on neutral grounds: In Baseball, MLB continues to have issues with COVID-19, with one team (St Louis Cardinals) having played as few as 5 games, while others have played the scheduled 16 matches. If you follow big favourites, a strategy that has been profitable in 17 of the last 18 "months" (I combine the few games at the start and end of the season with the appropriate full month adjoining it, i.e. March with April and October with Sep...

As expected based on the league placings, the Championship Play-Off Final will be between West Londoners Brentford and Fulham. Both clubs reached the Final in different ways.  Brentford lost the Away leg by one goal before winning the second leg. Historically, when clubs lose the first leg by one goal, the value is on them to lose the second leg. In play-off matches of this type from 2004 on, the Away in 40 such matches has an ROI of Fulham on the other hand, won the Away first leg by two goals. This is a margin which is also hugely profitable for the Away win, although there have only been 14 such scenarios. With a two goal margin, perhaps teams psychologically consider the job is done, and even when losing by a goal, are still ahead in the tie and don't care too much. Fulham had nothing to gain from pushing for an equaliser, and everything to lose by opening the game up, a great example of why understanding the context is so critical in sports investing.  For those intereste...

"It's certainly been an interesting stock to invest in, with hardly a day going by without some news." I wrote the above just two days ago , and so it continues, with Tesla's stock price surging by another 16% on Monday coming within a whisker of $1,800, before losing all its gains and closing at around $1,500. Never a dull moment! At one point on Monday, the losses since February 19th were erased, but there's a saying about counting chickens which I was reminded of as the trading day came to a close. Yesterday was a more steady day for Tesla, closing at $1,532, and with the markets all generally positive, the 146 day draw-down since February's slide is finally over after touching a nadir of -23.3% in March.  In football, it's been a very quiet run of matches in the EPL as far as qualifiers for the Draw bets go with only four "Toss-Up" qualifiers since the hiatus, and just another five in the "Close" category. Totals for the season and...

The regular season is anticipated to begin on July 23-24. MLB has submitted a proposed 60-game schedule to the MLBPA to review. It has not yet been finalized. I still have my doubts that the MLB season will take place, with the schedule still not confirmed, the clock ticking, players test positive for COVID-19 and at least two star players opting to skip the season for health (coronavirus) reasons. The message at the top of this post has been unchanged for over a week now, and t he Los Angeles Dodgers' star pitcher David Price and Atlanta Braves' Felix Hernandez announced yesterday that they would sit out. It must be nice to be able to forgo an $11.9m salary for 60 games! Maybe I'm overthinking this, but if more players test positive (for COVID-19, not PEDs as has been the traditional meaning) and / or more leading players choose not to play, the season may well not happen. I hope I'm wrong. The NBA is moving forward with its plans to resume play as I mentioned in this ...

Still no definitive date on schedules or when MLB might be back, but pre-season training camps have begun and confirmation today that the annual mid-season All-Star game will not be played but the Los Angeles Dodgers will host instead in 2022. No fewer than 31 players have tested positive for COVID-19 in Major League Baseball's first round of testing. Two players were named, one from the San Diego Padres, and another from the Cleveland Indians who may well have a new name if and when the season re-starts. The Washington Redskins NFL team also look almost certain to change their name. Such changes have long been discussed, but have never come to anything, but as the New York Times put it: But in the last month, the ground underneath their feet has shifted. American society is undergoing a wide uprising over police brutality and systemic racism that flared after the killing of George Floyd in police custody, a widespread movement that has led to a reconsideration of statues, flags, s...