noblecom3

Although I have every confidence in the rationale behind Longsight's 1964 revelation about " the tendency for clubs to draw several matches after ending a long run without a draw " just in case this method fails me, I've been continuing my research which of course knows no bounds. Next up is this little nugget from the Aberdeen Evening Express of February 22nd, 1956 which reveals " the extraordinary way drawn matches cluster together on the [football pools] coupon ". Describing this phenomenon to be " almost as catching as the measles ", Paul Burden finds it curious " the way one drawn game seems to affect several others immediately below it ". This is top-notch research, and if Paul Burden is still alive 64 years later, he must be a very wealthy man. If he has passed away, presumably his family are enjoying the fruits of his ground-breaking research. I'm not sure how I've missed this, since I've always considered matches to b...

The Daily Mirror's Pools 'expert' Longsight had an article in the paper on April 8th, 1964 with the headline "Draws all come out in the long run", noting "the tendency for clubs to draw several matches after ending a long run without a draw." Further examples were given including Aston Villa (6 in 11 after a run of 16), Wolverhampton Wanderers (8 in 16 after 13), Huddersfield Town (6 in 12 after 15), Plymouth Argyle (5 in 8 after 11), Bristol City (4 in 7 after 10), Colchester United (5 in 12 after 11), Hull City (6 in 12 after 12), Shrewsbury Town (6 in 13 after 13), Gillingham (5 in 6 after 18) and Oxford United (5 in 12 after 10).  And then the reason is explained: The explanation is, of course, that the general average of draws is about one in five games.  Clubs which run up long sequences without a draw can be expected to restore the balance to some degree once the run is ended. So now we know, and it's all been out there in the public domain fo...