270 To Win
The always excellent The Economist has an article on the US Presidential Election and their model for the Electoral College which: ...works by simulating 20,000 paths for the election, each time varying candidates� vote shares to account for polling error, changes in turnout or the political environment and the effects of campaigning. The bars below represent the predicted likelihood of every plausible electoral-vote outcome. Less than three weeks ago , I wrote that: ...the five states to keep a close eye on, and in order of importance, are Florida (29 votes), Pennsylvania (20), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11) and Wisconsin (10). The Economist has only three states as "toss-ups", namely Ohio, Georgia and Iowa (two of those states having a good number of votes at stake). Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are moved to the "Likely Democrat" column, and North Carolina, Arizona and Florida move to the "Leans Democrat" category although with a win probability for th...